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Investments in Russia. Practice. Problems. Prospects. S.Serebryakov Everyone speaks about the investments, who although into some of degree is connected with the Russian business and the industry. The problems of investments are discussed constantly at the seminars conducted in Russia, the forums and the conferences. However, disregarding of a colossal quantity of measures carried out in last two years, it cannot be said so that the investment processes in Russia would acquire contemporary outlines and they moved in the specific strategic river bed, being of the perceptible benefit to Russian real sector. In the contemporary investment processes participate two categories of investors - internal and external. Work with the foreign investors is always problematic, since the degree of their fears for the stability of economic situation is very high. Accordingly, either to them are necessary the rigid safeguards of the return on investments, and them they can give only actually viable enterprises or complete control of the activity of enterprise, as a result of which it in effect will cease to be Russian. Another matter is internal investor, i.e., those credit organizations, which could connect their means through the effective investment tools, thus stimulating real sector. This there can be either banks or the specialized financial- investment companies - participants in the fund market. As far as banks are concerned, to at present accomplish the lasting and massirovannoye purposeful crediting can either foreign bankers or Sberbank, or large banks with the state participation, which are capable of satisfying the high credit demands of industry and of not fear for the conditions for the recovery of credit means, since they work with the large viable organizations, which release high(ly)-ready production. However, commercial banks, as shows experience, also willingly proceed with credit relations only with the representatives of branches, who possess, in their opinion, significant liquidity. With the industry, whose worn-out equipment and which lets out noncompetitive and nonliquid production, banks to be connected they do not desire. And nevertheless, as showed the analysis of investment processes in Russia, in 2000, in comparison with 1999, the credit activity of Russian banks swiftly grew. And this is not chance, but the completely regular positive tendency, which indicates, in the first place, that the sharp phase of the crisis with respect to of banks, investment organizations and real sector is already passed. Thus, for instance, total volume of investments into the fixed capital for industrial branches (taking into account the participation of foreign bank capital) for 2000 comprised more than 5 billion dollars, while this index in entire 1999 was equal summary only of 3,2 billion dollars. II The appraisal group, specialists for the estimations of the risks of enterprises, and also marketologov, specialists in the sphere of business- planning and evaluating the economic processes in the Russian industry brought out the expert index of the promising investment attractiveness of branches to the next 3-5 years this rating it were created on the basis of data, obtained both on the branches of industry as a whole and on the individual enterprises, which are the typical representatives of these branches. The index of investment attractiveness bears forecast nature and is standardized relative to 100% value, obtained as a result of the averaging of the values of the so-called technological and consumer indices, calculated with the application of expert systems and estimated 10-point scales. Technological index characterizes the potential need of enterprise for the technical reequipping and its ability with the application of this equipment, and also innovation technologies to produce the qualitative, competitive and ready production, which can ensure the return on investment investments. Consumer index demonstrates the degree of the prospect of enterprises relative to the mobility of the sale of production, the level of its liquidity and the latitude of the consumer spectrum, within the framework of which must appear and be stimulated stable demand for it. With conducting of evaluating the investment attractiveness on the basis of the special expert scales the following technological and consumer characteristics of the typical representatives of the branches were evaluated by experts: 1. state and the prospect for technological base 2. state of raw-material base 3. degree of dependence on the import of raw material, equipment, that complete 4. needs for the industrial construction, reconstructions 5. state and the prospect for management 6. plasticity of administration 7. administrative policy 8. technical policy 9. Marketingovaya policy 10. Innovation policy 11. Need for the equipment and technical re-equipping 12. Return on investments in production process 13. Solvency and rate of profit (profitability) 14. Social significance of production and the latitude of consumer spectrum 15. Liquidity and the competitive ability of the production of branch on a regional (all-Russian) scale 16. Position and the prospect for the production of branch international markets 17. Connection with the average and small business and the dilerskaya activity of enterprises 18. Level of market tsivilizovannosti of branches 19. Level of kriminalizovannosti Thus, the expert index of investment attractiveness characterizes both the complex need of branch for the investments and the credit means and mobility of branch in the plan of the recovery of credit means. In other words, the higher relative to 100% index of investment attractiveness, the greater the quantity of means it is capable of absorbing branch to the technological and communication purposes and the faster it is capable of returning these means or of paying. On the basis of examination are isolated three groups of industrial branches, to one degree or another of promising to the next 3-5 years. The first group - is those branches, which possess the high potential of realization and recovery of investment means (according to complex index 60-80%). In this group unconditional leader is food industry (meat, is fish, flour-grinding, confectionery) and trade in foodstuffs - its technological potential is above 6 marks, and the consumer, naturally, highest (consequently, and the highest liquidity of production) - 9,7 marks. Moreover for enterprises in this field is characteristic high competitive ability both on the internal and at the international level. Temporarily lags electro-energetics, ready to absorb the significant volumes of investments and credit means. Is certain, at present in branch a colossal quantity of problems, connected both with the technological imperfection and the deterioration of the equipment and with the stagnation of management in enterprises, entering the structure OF RAO YEES. And the at the same time internal need of the country for electro-energetics and new financial diagrams of interrelation with enterprises in the field is obvious (index of promising consumer liquidity - 7,8 marks). Ever more needs technological re-equipping rail transport and civil aviation, in portion of which is fallen yearly ever more increasing volume of passenger and freight traffic. The conditional production of these branches has very high liquidity. Moreover in connection with the creation on the railroads of new it is specific high-speed passenger transportation, it is assumed that into the next 5 years between the railroad and air carriers the competition, which, it is completely possibly, will end by associative agreements to sale of complex transport product to population, will increase. Consequently, the liquidity of transport to a considerable degree will increase. The same group, besides the traditional export oriented branches (oil output and petroleum refining, natural gas industry), includes the most socially significant branches, which, under otherwise equal conditions and technical reequipping, are capable of realizing the effective process of importozameshcheniya and of leaving to the high level of profitability. This position is caused, first of all, by the high social significance by these enterprises output and by its accessibility for the significant consumer it is layer. In the second group of the branches, which possess the increased investment prospect (indices of higher than 50%). The enterprises of these spheres sharply need purposeful investment, but the return on investments will flow more slowly according to one or the other reasons, than in the previous group (this it can be connected both with the liquidity of production and with the level of the profitability of enterprises). In this rank lead the aircraft industry, general machine building, chemical and petrochemical industry, building and industry of construction materials. The solvency of population will grow and mass intra-Russian demand for the automobiles gradually will grow. The liquidity of production, true, is somewhat lower than in food products, but prospect for an increase in the branch also they do not cause doubts. In the third to group - branch of the lowered investment attractiveness (their complex index of lower than 50%). In this group burn the industrial sectors, which possess the lowered and low investment prospect, which is connected, first of all, with their obvious needs for the lasting credits with the low level of profitability. Thus, for instance, investment investments into the geological survey enterprises (including those prospect golding) can give return not earlier than in 10-12 years (is so is technologically devastated branch). An even smaller effectiveness one should expect from the investments into the agriculture, which at present is located on the very low technical level and moreover does not have mobile infrastructural connections with the average and small business in the cities, which would be interested to realize the production of village on a mass scale. Ferrous metallurgy is thus far one of the most branches low-organized in the market plan. The sale of production both on the all-Russian scale and abroad is hindered for many reasons, one of which are high criminal risks. But, furthermore, ferrous metallurgy, in spite of the low average index of deterioration of the equipment, in the technological plan thus far one of the most backward branches, whose rearmament is not possible to conduct by fast rates - to such measures they be necessary years. III Within the framework of an expert study all possible factors, which specify competitive ability and prospect of the development of branches, were evaluated. On each of the factors was produced the evaluation of its influence on the technological, administrative, marketingovuyu, innovation, social justifiability of enterprise, its solvency and ability to release qualitative production. On each of the factors of competitive ability were obtained two indices of investment expediency - operational and strategic, evaluated according to the 10-point scale (table 2). Operational investment expediency demonstrates, to what degree of investment in the purposeful measures for this factor the competitive abilities can be paid for the next 1-3 years. Strategic investment expediency shows the significance of the investment purposeful investments, directed toward the prospect (5-10 years). Complex investment expediency characterizes the degree of the effectiveness of investments into the realization of measures for this factor of competitive ability. Thus, in the plan of operational investment into the readiest branches the most rapid return they can give investments in the development of production and commercial infrastructure, and also its own transport base, which will make it possible to accelerate the process of delivery to finished production and raw material for its production. The completion of circulating capital - also significant operational factor, which makes possible for enterprise to support production process in the stable regime, to in time buy raw material, to pay out wages. In the same key work the investments for the organization of distribution and dilerskikh networks in the limits of different regions of Russia, which substantially increases the mobility of the sale of production and reaction rate to a change in the situation. And at the last place - import of those completing, which yearly loses its attractiveness, since it directly influences the level of the profitability of production. In all likelihood, the volumes of investment investments in these operations will be reduced. In the plan of the strategic attractiveness of investments, leader became the factor of the conclusion of Russian production for the world markets (international marketingovye programs). This factor undoubtedly needs the lasting and massirovannykh expenditures, then, being realized, this program is capable of raising the competitive ability of Russian enterprise, and that entire branch many times. Investments into the innovation activity - also the matter of not close prospect, since any innovation solutions and new technologies need the fixed technical base and the organization of competent production management. At the same time increasing quantity of enterprises will come to the conclusion about the need for development on our own base of the system of the innovation management, which will make it possible to increase quality and competitive ability of Russian production for the intra-Russian and international user. Close one in the significance is investment special-purpose program on the organization of its own raw-material base, which makes it possible in short periods to achieve deliveries of raw material for production, which to a considerable degree will increase the profitability of enterprise. They have relatively high strategic value and the program, connected with the development of communication programs - this development and realization of competent marketingovykh strategies, directed toward the propaganda, advertisement and the effective sale of production, fastening for the markets to renome of commodity stamps. Effect from the implementation of such programs can be achieved not by itself, but only when the necessary level of quality and service is present. Therefore expenditures for communication programs can pretend to the compensability not earlier than in 3-5 years. I, finally, two last factors of competitive ability, that have also strategic value for the branches - social programs and home construction activity, industrial construction and the reconstruction of production buildings and accomodations. It is completely obvious that in the production justifiability of branch and enterprise, as the quality by it output influences the state of workers. And the more stable will be the social situation in the branch, the greater the degree in which the workers will be provide ford with social safeguards and optimum conditions of work and vital activity, the more successful the enterprise will be. However, the implementation of social programs as the implementation of programs on the industrial construction, they require the most significant investment investments. But it is difficult to here calculate return from them: in the first case the compensability has purely psychological content and in the financial plan it can be jumbled with the investments into other factors. But the secondly - the return on the inserted means is extended by decades, therefore, rarely who from the investors will begin to plan this gambitnuyu combination and to pack significant means into the reconstruction and industrial construction. To this in the forseeable future can go either the important western creditors or state, which counts on one or other enterprise or another or branch. I, finally, about three factors, which have operational and strategic value. First of all, these are - technical re-equipping and the delivery of new equipment. Often the execution of technological program, reinforced by the flexible diagram of crediting, brought effect considerably more rapid than the organization of marketable networks. The quality of production sharply rose, resource expenditures for production were reduced (in particular, it was saved time and for its unit it were let out the considerably larger volume of production). From other side, this factor has the undoubted strategic value, connected with the innovation activity of enterprise. I.e., the faster the branch will be equipped with new qualitative equipment, the greater the chances to realize innovation programs, to inject new profitable technologies and to release more qualitative production. The following universal factor, which influences everything is more considerable to the vital activity of Russian branch subjects, this is - administrative reorganization. More than 60% enterprises in the Russian industrial fields, until now, use old systems for control and cadre administration. About 40% use in their activity the non-optimal organizational structures, which impede the mobility of production processes, to effective sale. The stagnation of management, the absence of the contemporary necessary menedzherskikh, marketingovykh, communication and other knowledge and habits practically make enterprises nonviable. But the implementation of special-purpose programs on the structural-functional and cadre administration in the most progressive enterprises, forced to compete not only in the limits of Russia, but also on the world markets, showed that often the revolutions of enterprise due to the competent distribution of controlling and performer functions rose more than 1,5-2. Definite difficulties to the larger degree bear psychological nature. The fact is that far from in all Russian enterprises is possible the introduction of the world experience of administration and control in view of their regional and branch mental'nosti. Consequently, for such enterprises it is necessary to develop exclusive special-purpose administrative programs. Credits directed to this river bed and investments can bring effect already soon, to say nothing of the strategic value of this financing, capable of ensuring the promising competitive ability of organization. I, finally, regional programs. The part of the implementation of these programs for the enterprise is connected with the formation of regional marketable and predstavitel'skikh networks. But this promising regional strategy, which requires investments, is by no means contained by. The experience of the last years showed that competent regional expansion it was possible to personify only for units of industrial enterprises, which were attempting to engage durable (but that and sole) positions in the regions and the regions RF. The situation with the regional programs substantially changed during 2000: the overwhelming majority of viable enterprises realized the need organizing the competent regional policy, and consequently, the need for the crediting of such special-purpose programs will grow. Many investors, just as experts on the investment processes, beginning to realize credit- investment programs in industrial enterprise, they consider that the financing to the completion of circulating capital of enterprise is the main and most effective direction of crediting and that from this credit the enterprise can carry out, including and purposeful financing, for example, administrative programs. However, as shows experience, this not always so. If credit means are not previously distributed on the belonging with one or other operational or strategic program or another, then these programs are actually doomed. At best from circulating capital for enterprise will be perfected one-act of financing this program, after which the initiative will smother: there are too many local problems any industrial enterprise has, which needs operational financial infusion. Consequently, only purposeful crediting is capable of bringing real operational or strategic effect. THE IV The problem of the technical re-equipping of industrial production stands very sharply more than for 80% of Russian industrial enterprises, capable of restoring effective production. But crediting under the technological programs does not enjoy popularity. This is connected with the fact that until there are no guarantees of the retention of economic stability; for the majority of the representatives of bank capital to pack means into the promising programs - too great a risk. On the average in the country the deterioration of the equipment on all industrial branches in 1999 composed 70%. Cama4 heavy situation with the equipment occurred in petroleum refining, chemical and petrochemical industry - wear comprised more than 80%. But the highest speed of aging equipment in the conditions of Russia - in the gas-extraction and light industries: in four years the rate of wear comprised more than 15%. But the main thing, that the equipment, which equipped the majority of Russian enterprises, which compose the basis of industrial infrastructure, continues inexorably to grow old and morally and physically. The re-equipment of enterprises so that they would reach the necessary level possibly only due to the foreign technology. To this they are necessary to the investment of order 20% of VLADIMIR PUTIN. Such money, it goes without saying, the state to these purposes does not have. But it means, to act in this direction - direct problem of business banks and financial- investment companies. The problem of the technical equipment of industrial enterprises stands not simply sharply, but already acquired the nature of the extreme measure, to draw off application of which already is impossible. This problem in the sharpest form standing precisely before the enterprises, which release production for the domestic market, i.e., as a result by those oriented to importozameshcheniye and restoration of the sphere of the consumption strictly of Russian goods. Export branches (in particular, the polugosudarstvennye gas and petroleum monopolists) have already long ago worked on the equipment high-quality and they continue to be reequipped into the name of the completion of budget due to the obtained and resold for the boundary domestic resources. Thus, base for the goal-directed investment processes it is present. There remains only to manufacture such tool, which, from one side, will make it possible to connect the industrialist interested in the investments, with another, possessor of investment means. Because of the absence of the fixed communicative mechanism the investors and industrialists simply do not know about existence of each other, just as they do not have an idea about the possibilities of sides or they do not have resources in order to create competent investment project. Consequently, in connection with the growing needs for the strategic crediting of the real sector of economy the sharp need for organization and conducting of large-scale international action for purposes of the stimulation of investment processes ripened. New type investment forum will become the starting point of the formation of effective business and information contacts between the investors and managing organizations, Russian union of industrialists and owners (employers), and also by the organs of executive power (by ministries and by departments), will give pulse to the development of interrelations between the domestic industry.
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Analysis of the investment